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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 5:54 pm)   
 
Missouri's loss to Norfolk State just the fifth time in 27 years that a 15 has beaten a two!:

That sound you just heard is the pop of brackets bursting all over the country- - including my Gut and Keeper...but not only one of the nine stats models.

Missouri is just the fifth of 112 two seeds to fall to a 15 seed. The last time it ... more »

bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 5:59 pm)   
 
Originally had Florida beating them but changed it. Regardless, had them losing in the S16. No harm done. Still got the most points and most potential points in my 10 man bracket pool. lets go

bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:03 pm)   
 
Pete, why didn't your models predict this?

jk jk

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:04 pm)   
 
Lol, let us all blame Pete for this, lol

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:07 pm)   
 
This is what happens when statistics clash with the actions of 20- year- old atheletes! I could be in for another painful tourney. That said, many of the models are safe...just not the ones based on my personal opinion.

bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:08 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:08 pm)
 
RIP your new outcome model...it's getting rocked this tourney

Classic F4 and Seed are looking really good right now tho

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:13 pm)   
 
Yeah. So much for sculpting a bracket to look more like what really happens. We'll probably still get 8- 10 upsets, just not the upsets I picked. I think going chalk would still have you in the mid- 90s for the ESPN tourney challenge. Hmm.

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:21 pm)   
 
Seems to be very difficult to predict when lightning (upsets) will strike!!! You know it is going to happen, but who and when is another matter. Long beach was close, but not quite, VCU got it done over Wichita st. Colorado over UNLV, NC state over SDSU. I still think there are more to come.


ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:32 pm)   
 
I would agree. We're going to see another upset. I'll say South Florida over Temple. (Not Ohio over Michigan...please?)

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 6:48 pm)   
 
Pete! wish i would have stayed with my Fla over Mizzou picked that we discussed which I was set on but thankfully I took Marquette over Mizzou...not much harm done

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:01 pm)   
 
C.J. McCollum! Right now I am not feeling too crazy for all my Lehigh talk earlier in the week

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:05 pm)   
 
F4/ champs model is my fav. sorry tiger fans

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:16 pm)   
 
HOw close were the seed guides in identifying Norfolk ST

Criteria needed - - - Norfolk
9 wins in last 10 and 3 in a row - - - won 9 of 10 and 7 in a row
Win % 600- 800 - - - .735
Scored 69 or more - - - 69.0
Margin 3.0 - - - 2.9
1 senior starter - - - 3
70% or more from starters - - - 77.8%
Balance scoring between 37- 58 from guards - - - 33.9% from guards

How could we all not see this:)

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:25 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:27 pm)
 
Well, they were lacking in two of the areas, plus 15 seeds meeting the criteria still have a poor record (ones not meeting the criteria pretty much had no chance according to the model) . . . Lehigh actually meets the criteria, I am of fan of theirs, and they have an extremely good player in C.J. McCollum and even I wasn't willing to pick ... more »

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:49 pm)   
 
Ryan,

Posted more in jest than as an obvious miss. Missouri was playing very well, easily could have been a 1 seed. It just goes to show the unpredictability of the tourney. The essence of what makes it so great!!

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:52 pm)   
 
gotcha, completely misinterpreted your post, haha . . . i definitely agree with that statement though!

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 7:59 pm)   
 
I think someone had brought up the idea that to some degree, the upsets...when they happen...seem to come in clusters. Same venues, same time sessions of games, clustered in a region, something to that effect. I wonder if there is anyway to look at the historical perspective and if there is any validity to my vague theory.


ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:07 pm)   
 
You know what, I remember last year, I thought Thursday was pretty tame, and if I remember right, Friday was nuts, so there may be some truth to that . . . looks like it might be holding true right now, Ohio and Lehigh are in position (though Duke has completely taken over the momentum as I type this).

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:09 pm)   
 
Ryan, I am watching the came action and it looks like Ohio and Lehigh and hanging in, but may not be able to hold on. Finish should be fun.

Gary

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:11 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:12 pm)
 
I agree, I am watching Lehigh right now (I live an hour and a half from the school, so I am really pulling for them) . . . Duke has begun killing them on the boards, Lehigh just hit that three, but Duke is in control . . . score watching Ohio though I did pick them to win (Michigan is creeping in on them)

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:25 pm)   
 
Michigan settling for 3's after getting it to 63- 60. Not attacking the rim, just not their game.

Take that Clark Kellogg as McCollum hits on the wing, followed by an dunk. Great stuff!!

Gary

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:27 pm)   
 
Two words: "it hurts"

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:29 pm)   
 
Sorry Pete. Can you say the upsets come in clusters???

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:30 pm)   
 
I don't believe what I'm seeing.

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:30 pm)   
 
lol, sorry Pete! Lehigh needs to hold on here . . . WHY DID I CHANGE THIS PICK . . . I had Lehigh picked until Wednesday night, and then I got scared and changed it . . . I am very excited none the less . . . 1 minute left, up 8

nsdikin

Smyrna, GA
Member (Mar 2012)
10 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/16/12 8:31 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (9/9/12 6:31 pm)
 
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