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#10: Data sculpting
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 10:44 pm)   
Edited:  17 months ago   (11/16/12 1:40 am)
 
Model #10 uses Pythag matchup gaps and "outcome matching" to build a bracket that looks real:

Every once in a while, when I've been deprived of enough sleep, a brainstorm rumbles over me. I've been somewhat disappointed with the chalkiness of many of the brackets that the numbers have spit out over the last 24 hours. I've ... more »

GuruNick

San Antonio, TX
Member (Mar 2008)
5 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 11:28 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (4/12/12 11:03 pm)
 
I absolutely love this model, Pete! Been trying to do something like this on my own the last few years... I think it'll turn out to be a gem a few years and a bust others. But, I one I'd play happily!

I defer to the keep of the stats, but... Why 6 upsets first round? Isn't the number closer to 7?

Sidenote - Ever ... more »

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 11:54 pm)   
 
I love the theory behind this bracket and its one that actually passes the eye test in the sense that I could see a tournament playing out like this . . . I might play around with the same theory by combining/ comparing pythag, upset rules, and seed by seed matchups to find out a hybrid- consensus on the most likely upsets to fit into the 8 or 9 upset slots

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/13/12 6:53 am)   
 
GuruNick - I could do a regional breakdown. I've never analyzed that. On the upsets, there have been 115 round one upsets in 27 dances. That's 4.3. 75 upsets in round two- - closer to three than two. Then 31 in the Sweet 16 (that's one)...and 11 the rest of the way. But the way the bracket shook out and the numbers fell, the closest upset, if I wanted to get to 10, was in round one.

johnroberts719

Georgetown, KY
Member (Mar 2011)
8 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/13/12 7:18 am)   
 
In my bracket where I'm not going with straight Pomeroy rankings, and as long as we clearly identify that an upset is two teams separated by at least three seeds, then I have 7 first round upsets, 3 second round upsets, 2 Sweet Sixteen upsets, and no upsets after that. Am I going way too upset heavy? Of those upsets, 2 are 10's over 7's, ... more »

rrivers123

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
3 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/13/12 7:55 am)   
 
Is an 9 over a 8 an upset? what about 10 over a 7?

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/13/12 8:24 am)   
 
how many upsets were there in last years dance?

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/13/12 8:27 am)   
 
i've got 5 upsets in the first round. that 6th upset probably will come on a 4 vs 13 or 14 vs 3 matchup. however, i advanced my 1- 4 seeds through to the 2nd round

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/13/12 8:50 am)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (3/13/12 8:58 am)
 
Rrivers123, Pete defines an upset as being a greater than a three seed difference (therefore, 10 over 7 isn't an upset but 11 over 6 is). Hope this helps.

pwakefield77, there were 13 upsets last year

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