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Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:33 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:34 pm)
 
I've noticed over the years that my personal excel research based on Pete's guide's doesn't always match up with the final results that he puts up for his models. I think he uses a bit of discretion in every model. Which is fine and I think that is how it should be, but I think it should be noted that discretion is used so it doesn't confuse others into thinking they messed up calculations.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:32 pm)   
 
man it's soooooo easy to do : )

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:31 pm)   
 
pete's model bracket 9 goes off of seed guide. and it's got vcu and s florida as the 12's to pick

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:31 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:32 pm)
 
You're right...I misread my guide. LBSU doesnt have the traits. I had it marked as red....ugh. Sorry!

Harvard is the neutral pick instead of LBSU. Got them mixed up

So yea I'm definitely going against the grain with the LBSU pick. I'll probably pay for it but I loved the team all year and figured I can risk a few points ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:29 pm)   
 
bamilus - i'm not showing lb st as meeting either of the 12 upset factors on the seed guide. they weren't in last years dance and they only get 43% scoring from frount court which doesn't fall within 55- 75% criteria?

pete! i'm begging next year to have something us seed guide freaks can compare our work to

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:28 pm)   
 
Lol thanks wakefield for the research...big ups. makes sense. New Mex looks STRONG. reg season and conf tourney champs. I think I just wanna write down "The Beach" on my bracket though hahah

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:27 pm)   
 
5v12 based on seed guide:

None of the 5 seeds have upset victim traits.
For the twelve seeds, as described in my post below: LBSU, VCU, and USF are "neutral". They have half the traits of an upset team (but not both traits to make it a knockout pick).

Based on the victims guide:

New Mexico and Vanderbilt ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:27 pm)   
 
Bamilus for president!...and wow I was going with all those upsets just off my own knowledge to begin with! pumped the stats back them up...except ohio over mich. My sister- in- law went to U of M

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:25 pm)   
 
cat - i didn't find new mexico having any of the 5 victim traits and i didn't find long beach state having any of the 12 upset traits. but my math abilities sound similar to you : )

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:24 pm)   
 
It's odd because LBSU has half the traits based on the seed guide. So I almost set that as a neutral. New Mexico isn't an upset victim on the Seed Guide. However, they are an upset victim based on Upset/ Tossup rules.

This pick is more of a gut pick for me just based on the fact that New Mexico never plays well in the tournament and ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:22 pm)   
 
bamilus you rock! pete needs to put you on staff : )

hey have you gone over the 5- 12 matchups?
wanted to compare notes?
i'm showing vcu and s florida would be the closest to a 12 upset.

thanks again bamilus

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:21 pm)   
 
Does Long Beach have the traits and is New Mexico a victim?? My Math deficiencies are pissing me off...Love Casper Ware and Ennis for LBSU...might pull the trigger anyways but would like to know

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:19 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:21 pm)
 
I spent about 4- 5 hours doing all the models and the upsets I have picked based on a blending of the models and personal experience are as follows (with a bit of risk taking):

Belmont over Georgetown
NCState over SDSU
Ohio over Michigan
Davidson over Louisville
LBSU over New Mexico (contingent on whether Anderson ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:15 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:17 pm)
 
*I made an edit at the bottom

You are correct pwakefield77 on the numbers. However, I just use excel's normal percentage rounding function (to the nearest whole percent) because I don't think Pete's models were meant to be black and white down to two digits.

I have NC State as having the upset qualities in ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:13 pm)   
 
thank you! this is gonna be the death of me!
steve fisher can't fit the bill can he? he's made several elite 8 appearances?

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:10 pm)   
 
Let me check real quick.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:09 pm)   
 
bamilus on the other side, the 11 seeds. i've divide pts for by pts against and i'm coming up with 8.14 for colorado, 3.92 for colorado st, 9.34 for texas and 7.87 for nc state. that would put nc state under the 8% mark right?

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:05 pm)   
 
bamilus, on the 6 seed victim criteria can you give me the coaching part breakdown.

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:59 pm)   
 
and by horrible i mean recently...obviously very good tradition etc.

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:57 pm)   
 
Very good insight Bamilus and thanks for confirming NMSU's traits. I respect your IU fandom, but I'm a hoops junkie and have seen NMSU play a few times. Granted vs inferior teams as you mentioned but they have a 6'10 beast and a 6"11 beast that I really think could bang with Zeller. Theyre athletic and play a scramble style and this ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:51 pm)   
 
Yes NMSU has all the traits. I'm a huge Hoosier fan and have seen them play in person (both my parents went to IU). NMSU wouldn't be a bad pick but I can't see NMSU beating Wichita St or VCU in the next round, so I'd stick to IU. IU fans travel well and IU beat Notre Dame by double digits on a neutral court, Purdue by 17 at ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:49 pm)   
 
Thank you Bamilus...i failed to realize that the scoring margin given was not a PERCENTAGE but rather how many ppg they win by. Thanks for the help. and one last thing did NMSU have all the traits of a 13? cuz i thought they did but would like to dbl check...

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:47 pm)   
 
Best 6- 11 upset is NCState over SDSU. NCState has the traits and SDSU has every victim trait. NCState is actually favored by Vegas by a point or two. Colorado could beat UNLV, I think both are bad teams, but I wouldn't actually make that pick. Colorado is pretty weak and hasn't beaten anyone. UNLV at least has a few good wins. Colorado State ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:45 pm)   
 
CatsDance:

For Indiana to be an upset victim, they must apply to all three of those criteria. They fail two but pass the scoring margin percentage. To find the scoring margin percentage, take the scoring margin/ points against. Indiana gets more than 17% and therefore is not an upset Victim

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:43 pm)   
 
i would love to check my work as well against something

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:42 pm)   
 
Thanks pwakefield 77...im confused now too haha...And does pete just release who the victims and possble upsets are?? I could have sworn he did that one year where he said in this case Team A and Team B have all the qualities of victims...unless im dreaming but that would be nice

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