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CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:21 pm)   
 
Does Long Beach have the traits and is New Mexico a victim?? My Math deficiencies are pissing me off...Love Casper Ware and Ennis for LBSU...might pull the trigger anyways but would like to know

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:22 pm)   
 
bamilus you rock! pete needs to put you on staff : )

hey have you gone over the 5- 12 matchups?
wanted to compare notes?
i'm showing vcu and s florida would be the closest to a 12 upset.

thanks again bamilus

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:24 pm)   
 
It's odd because LBSU has half the traits based on the seed guide. So I almost set that as a neutral. New Mexico isn't an upset victim on the Seed Guide. However, they are an upset victim based on Upset/ Tossup rules.

This pick is more of a gut pick for me just based on the fact that New Mexico never plays well in the tournament and ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:25 pm)   
 
cat - i didn't find new mexico having any of the 5 victim traits and i didn't find long beach state having any of the 12 upset traits. but my math abilities sound similar to you : )

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:27 pm)   
 
5v12 based on seed guide:

None of the 5 seeds have upset victim traits.
For the twelve seeds, as described in my post below: LBSU, VCU, and USF are "neutral". They have half the traits of an upset team (but not both traits to make it a knockout pick).

Based on the victims guide:

New Mexico and Vanderbilt ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:27 pm)   
 
Bamilus for president!...and wow I was going with all those upsets just off my own knowledge to begin with! pumped the stats back them up...except ohio over mich. My sister- in- law went to U of M

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:28 pm)   
 
Lol thanks wakefield for the research...big ups. makes sense. New Mex looks STRONG. reg season and conf tourney champs. I think I just wanna write down "The Beach" on my bracket though hahah

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:29 pm)   
 
bamilus - i'm not showing lb st as meeting either of the 12 upset factors on the seed guide. they weren't in last years dance and they only get 43% scoring from frount court which doesn't fall within 55- 75% criteria?

pete! i'm begging next year to have something us seed guide freaks can compare our work to

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:31 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:32 pm)
 
You're right...I misread my guide. LBSU doesnt have the traits. I had it marked as red....ugh. Sorry!

Harvard is the neutral pick instead of LBSU. Got them mixed up

So yea I'm definitely going against the grain with the LBSU pick. I'll probably pay for it but I loved the team all year and figured I can risk a few points ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:31 pm)   
 
pete's model bracket 9 goes off of seed guide. and it's got vcu and s florida as the 12's to pick

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:32 pm)   
 
man it's soooooo easy to do : )

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:33 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:34 pm)
 
I've noticed over the years that my personal excel research based on Pete's guide's doesn't always match up with the final results that he puts up for his models. I think he uses a bit of discretion in every model. Which is fine and I think that is how it should be, but I think it should be noted that discretion is used so it doesn't confuse others into thinking they messed up calculations.

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:37 pm)   
 
Hey you guys are you noticing any glaring traits in 2 vs 3 seed guides in the sweet 16?? alwayssss a brutal pick..or a potential fatal flaw(s) in a 1 seed vs a 4 lets say? I think Syracuse is WEAK

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:39 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:40 pm)
 
Agreed!! I had to restrain myself from not picking Kansas St over Syracuse. I think KSU is by far the best 8/ 9 seed and Syracuse is the weakest one seed. I didn't make the pick because I have Ohio State beating either of them and even though KSU can spring the upset it's still usually best to still pick the one seed over the 8/ 9 ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:41 pm)   
 
definitely hear ya on K State. Frank gets the boys to play hard. It doesnt make sense tho liek you said b/ c no one else in your pool will have that so might as well lose pts with everyone if it doesn't happen. (learning from my wofford over BYU pick last year)

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:43 pm)   
 
and I might go with Marquette too. I live 10 mins from Milwaukee so a lot of ppl will have Marquette so I'll gain or lose with everyone on that matchup

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:44 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:45 pm)
 
Did you run any seed guides that had a 6 or 7 far or 11 or 12? I feel that could definitely happen

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:49 pm)   
 
Not specifically, but I think Purdue/ Florida deserve a second look. I think they might be undervalued.

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:49 pm)   
 
K State satisfies all 8 seed over 1 criteria and Syracuse barely meets teh criteria. Theyre margin of victory is about a point over 13.3 otherwise they would fit the victim bill...hmmmm

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:51 pm)   
 
possibly...Purdue scares me...in a bad way haha and I could see Florida. Do they hit 3s or not? Im gunna check out the 2- 7 seed guide for that Mizzou Fla matchup..........

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:54 pm)   
 
Frank Haith has that glaring lack of Elite 8 trips...scary. and i think Mizzou is legit but damn now idk

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:54 pm)   
 
Florida kinda lives and dies by the three. But they are a team that always seems to get to the Sweet 16. Might not get much farther than that, but I think they can be dangerous. Dunno if it's worth the risk though.

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:55 pm)   
 
Yea Im in the same boat. Missou looks to me like either one of the best teams out there or one of the most overrated, depending on how you cut it. I lean more towards the latter but I wouldn't be surprised if they make it to the F4

rpzbills33

Springfield, MO
Member (Jan 2010)
5 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 9:58 pm)   
Edited:  8 months ago   (12/27/13 1:11 pm)
 
1

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 10:00 pm)   
Edited:  8 months ago   (12/27/13 1:10 pm)
 
1

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (3/12/12 10:00 pm)   
Edited:  4 hours ago   (9/2/14 5:20 pm)
 
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