NCAA Basketball Forum and Discussion Board: March Madness : 10 down, two to go
Use this forum to post questions or discuss topics with other NCAA Basketball fans.

Welcome to the new BracketScience Fan Forum
NCAA Basketball Forum » March Madness »

10 down, two to go
Login/Register to Post a New Comment

[ Most Recent First | Oldest First ]
    Viewing Comments 1-25    

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 4:36 pm)   
 
Three more bracket models posted; only mystery model and keeper left:

Over the last few hours, I've posted Models 7 (Pythag + coaching), 8 (Pulse Check) and 9 (Seed Matchups).

I've got two to go. I'm planning on debuting a new model for #10, but I'm still trying to sort out the methodology (and my brain is currently ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 5:07 pm)   
 
awesome pete.
hey remind me which model does the first round by your "seed guide". i'd like to check my work

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 6:12 pm)   
 
think it's #9...seed matchup. I only advance a low seed if the numbers show better than 50% chance. You may want to relax that.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:06 pm)   
 
yeah, i think you're right. you know most likely there will be one 6- 11 upset. but that 50% mark doesn't allow for an upset to happen. i just took the closet matchup to that 50% mark

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:12 pm)   
 
Can anybody help me with this?...I applied the seed guidelines for the 4 Indiana vs 13 New Mexico St matchup and NMSU had all the traits of a 13 seed that upsets a 4 and Indiana had all the traits of victim. Yet in Pete's #9 seed guideline bracket he has Indiana winning. Is this because the upset only happens 40% when this occurs?? Any clarification would be much appreciated...

rpzbills33

Springfield, MO
Member (Jan 2010)
5 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:14 pm)   
 
pete where is the love for Iona??

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:14 pm)   
 
Indiana doesn't have the traits of an upset based on Seed Guide or by Upset guide. You might've messed up somewhere along the way.

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:15 pm)   
 
Tough draw for Gaels. I loved em all year but can't see em beating Marquette, and that's only if they get past a tough BYU team

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:18 pm)   
 
Hmm...thanks Bamilus I'll have to double check. according to what I read though Indiana gets less than half of its points from guards, has a winning percentage below 84% with less than 9 wins out of their last 10 and they own a scoring margin % less than 17 %...

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:26 pm)   
 
hey catsdance31, i came up with similar results. on indiana i don't think they met the 3rd criteria of the 17% mark. i THINK pete gets that by dividing the total number of points scored by indian divided by the point against and you're looking for a number less than 1.17. i THINK. i wonder if indiana advanced in the model because i thought ... more »

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:32 pm)   
 
was curious if anyone ran the numbers using seed guide to the 6- 11 matchups. looking for an 11 to move on. colorado looks like the closest thing

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:42 pm)   
 
Thanks pwakefield 77...im confused now too haha...And does pete just release who the victims and possble upsets are?? I could have sworn he did that one year where he said in this case Team A and Team B have all the qualities of victims...unless im dreaming but that would be nice

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:43 pm)   
 
i would love to check my work as well against something

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:45 pm)   
 
CatsDance:

For Indiana to be an upset victim, they must apply to all three of those criteria. They fail two but pass the scoring margin percentage. To find the scoring margin percentage, take the scoring margin/ points against. Indiana gets more than 17% and therefore is not an upset Victim

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:47 pm)   
 
Best 6- 11 upset is NCState over SDSU. NCState has the traits and SDSU has every victim trait. NCState is actually favored by Vegas by a point or two. Colorado could beat UNLV, I think both are bad teams, but I wouldn't actually make that pick. Colorado is pretty weak and hasn't beaten anyone. UNLV at least has a few good wins. Colorado State ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:49 pm)   
 
Thank you Bamilus...i failed to realize that the scoring margin given was not a PERCENTAGE but rather how many ppg they win by. Thanks for the help. and one last thing did NMSU have all the traits of a 13? cuz i thought they did but would like to dbl check...

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:51 pm)   
 
Yes NMSU has all the traits. I'm a huge Hoosier fan and have seen them play in person (both my parents went to IU). NMSU wouldn't be a bad pick but I can't see NMSU beating Wichita St or VCU in the next round, so I'd stick to IU. IU fans travel well and IU beat Notre Dame by double digits on a neutral court, Purdue by 17 at ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:57 pm)   
 
Very good insight Bamilus and thanks for confirming NMSU's traits. I respect your IU fandom, but I'm a hoops junkie and have seen NMSU play a few times. Granted vs inferior teams as you mentioned but they have a 6'10 beast and a 6"11 beast that I really think could bang with Zeller. Theyre athletic and play a scramble style and this ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:59 pm)   
 
and by horrible i mean recently...obviously very good tradition etc.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:05 pm)   
 
bamilus, on the 6 seed victim criteria can you give me the coaching part breakdown.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:09 pm)   
 
bamilus on the other side, the 11 seeds. i've divide pts for by pts against and i'm coming up with 8.14 for colorado, 3.92 for colorado st, 9.34 for texas and 7.87 for nc state. that would put nc state under the 8% mark right?

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:10 pm)   
 
Let me check real quick.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:13 pm)   
 
thank you! this is gonna be the death of me!
steve fisher can't fit the bill can he? he's made several elite 8 appearances?

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:15 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:17 pm)
 
*I made an edit at the bottom

You are correct pwakefield77 on the numbers. However, I just use excel's normal percentage rounding function (to the nearest whole percent) because I don't think Pete's models were meant to be black and white down to two digits.

I have NC State as having the upset qualities in ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:19 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:21 pm)
 
I spent about 4- 5 hours doing all the models and the upsets I have picked based on a blending of the models and personal experience are as follows (with a bit of risk taking):

Belmont over Georgetown
NCState over SDSU
Ohio over Michigan
Davidson over Louisville
LBSU over New Mexico (contingent on whether Anderson ... more »

CatsDance31

Franklin, WI
Member (Mar 2012)
29 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:21 pm)   
 
Does Long Beach have the traits and is New Mexico a victim?? My Math deficiencies are pissing me off...Love Casper Ware and Ennis for LBSU...might pull the trigger anyways but would like to know

    Viewing Comments 1-25    

 



  ·  
Rules of Conduct

2014 Bracket Science LLC
ActiveFan Sports Network