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Four models done
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 3:44 am)   
 
Four models completed, more on Monday:

It's 4:42am and I've got to get some shut- eye. I completed four of the models tonight:

1: From the Gut - Kentucky
3: Final Four/ Champ - Kansas
5: Factor PASE - Ohio State
6: Pythag Efficiency - Kentucky

I've got a couple more that I will turn around first ... more »

mattys

Morrisville, PA
Member (Feb 2012)
1 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:34 am)   
 
Hey Pete,

Check the 3rd round in the Upset/ Toss Up rules. I agree that if Purdue meets Purdue, Purdue will win, it's just that I don't think it will happen.

Matty

pinner62

Naples, FL
Member (Mar 2010)
3 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 8:49 am)   
 
Pete,
Couldnt print out bracket #3 (Upset/ Toss out) from PDF. I am not sure if it is on my end, or yours, please let me know by posting here. Txs, Pinner

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:08 am)   
 
Thanks Mattys. Pinner62...I'll check.

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:13 am)   
 
Pinner62 - Fixed. Hyphen vs. emdash problem in PDF name.

jacobsj50

Aurora, CO
Member (Mar 2009)
1 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 9:46 am)   
 
Pete - I know you're sleep deprived - in #5 you are showing the winner of Marq vs BYU as Murray State.

Thanks - you always help me beat the boys in the pool and they can't figure out how the heck I do it! Jill

sbrosenthal

Saint Paul, MN
Member (Mar 2011)
10 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:04 am)   
 
Which teams fall into these categories?


There are eight stats you can use right now to narrow your list of potential champions. Every single one of the last 10 champs have:

• Earned a one, two or three seed
• Come from a Power conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac- 10 or SEC)
• Been led by a coach ... more »

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:05 am)   
 
I'm disappointed, on the Contrarian, I was hoping to see a Lehigh over Duke shocker . . . they fit the profile according to the seed by seed matchups (though that still doesnt give them a 50% chance), haha. keep up the great work Pete.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:24 am)   
 
can anyone help me. on the top factors for 1- 2 seeds under "top arf performers" #3. scoring gap against opponents higher than 22%. is that on the spreadsheet? if so, which column?

thanks in advance

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:37 am)   
 
Its a calculation you will have to do on your own, as its not in the spreadsheet . . . however, im not sure exactly which way he calculates it for these purposes (i've done it two ways, getting two different results and don't know which way he does it, haha) . . . sorry I'm not much help, haha

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:43 am)   
 
thanks ryan for the super quick response.

did anyone else take a look at the top factors for 1- 2 seeds. my calculations i've got kentucky and north carolin meeting 3 out of 5 of the top SOAR performers and mich st meeting 1/ 5 , syracuse 2/ 5.


ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:55 am)   
 
Kansas and Ohio State meet 4 of the 5 and Missouri meets 3 of the 5 soar as far as i can tell. Duke does not meet any of them (unless the only 1 senior starter is 1 or less, in which case they would meet 1)

cborchwis

Cottage Grove, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
5 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 10:58 am)   
 
Regarding to Final 4/ Champ model, does anyone know why Baylor qualifies as Final 4 team in the South? South is a difficult regional to pick. It could be a dark horse team coming out of that region or UK goes to the Final 4 by default. Many people will pick UK to win everything.

From last year's Final 4/ Champ model, I cannot remember UConn is one of the Final 4 team and winning the whole thing and Butler in the Final 4.

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:01 am)   
 
I actually don't have Michigan State matching any of the soar factors and i only have Kentucky matching 2 of the 5 . . . Syracuse and North Carolina I got the same results

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:01 am)   
 
thanks again ryan.

what model does everyone use for their brackets. i'm a huge fan of using the seed by seed guide for at least the first 2 rounds

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:04 am)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:11 am)
 
@cborchwis . . . Baylor is the only team in the region to meet the criteria in the 2012 Strategies- Your Contenders article for which that model picks the possible contenders for the final four . . . therefor, they automatically advance to the final four in that model

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:07 am)   
 
actually you're right ryan. i messed up #3
i've got kentucky with 2
mich st 0
syracuse 2
and north carolina 3 meeting #3, 4 and 5?

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:08 am)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:13 am)
 
@pwakefield . . . i generally look at all of them and see if there are any strong trends and then I make my bracket based on the eye- test from watching games . . . i really like to use the pomeroy efficiency ratings as a guide, but I don't marry myself to the pomeroy rankings . . . I will admit, i have a major soft spot for the seed by seed matchup model as well, especially early (like you)

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:10 am)   
 
@pwakefield . . . that is what I got for UNC

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:16 am)   
 
i like how pete's noticed a relationship between how crazy the dance is going to be and the top 20 efficiency ratings. now that we have the seeds. is the top 20 efficiency still weak especially seeds 3,4,5? i'm assuming not much has changed and this year is going to be crazy like 2006, 2010 and 2011?

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:22 am)   
 
the 3 seeds appear to be all over- seeded (except for Georgetown), probably making them even weaker in the process. I could see one or two of the 3 seeds going out in the first round (though Pete would not endorse this, haha) Outside of Temple, the 5 seeds might actually be stronger than the 3 seeds in you go by the efficiency ratings, ... more »

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:27 am)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:39 am)
 
Also, according to the efficiency ratings, Michigan State could have a brutal run to the final four. Their 8- 9 matchup is between Memphis (9th overall in the efficiency ratings) and Saint Louis (15th overall). Add in Louisville (20th) and New Mexico (13th) as the 4 and 5. Missouri and Marquette are also appropriated ... more »

cborchwis

Cottage Grove, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
5 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:33 am)   
 
Regarding to Baylor being in the Final 4 in Final 4/ Champion model-
The three seeds that have the best chance to reach the Final Four are free of any of these 15 disqualifiers:
• A rookie tourney coach leading a team that didn’t go to the last dance

Baylor did not go to dance last year. I think Baylor would be disqualified unless I misunderstanding something.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:37 am)   
 
agreed ryan on your michigan st observations. meeting 0 of the SOAR criteria. haha the "izzo factor"

ryan_tressler
Ryan Tressler
West Chester, PA
Member (Feb 2009)
103 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:37 am)   
 
@cborchwis . . . that criteria is a 2 for 2, meaning they need to meet both criteria for it to be a negative mark against them. Baylor did not go to the tourny last year, however, Scott Drew is not a rookie coach. Therefor, because of Coach Drew, they do not match this disqualifier.

pwakefield77

Littleton, CO
Member (Mar 2010)
67 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/12/12 11:46 am)   
 
did i hear that kansas came out as the champ in the final four/ champ model? is that cause they're a 2 seed this year when they maybe should have been a 1 seed? maybe i'm just bitter cause i like the tar heels better

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