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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/20/11 9:24 am)   
 
Brad Stevens is the new Tom Izzo; Kevin Stallings is the new Kevin Stallings:

As I mentioned in an earlier blog, the balance of power in coaching PASE performance will shift significantly after this tourney. Amazingly, Brad Stevens will build on his eye- popping PASE. Even if his Bulldogs lose to Wisconsin- - and that's hardly a foregone ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/20/11 10:43 pm)   
 
How much does PASE change for refs blowing games?

kaceynwells

Boerne, TX
Member (Feb 2011)
4 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/20/11 11:14 pm)   
 
I tell you what. I think we have finally gotten to the one NCAA Tournament that blows every model imaginable out of the water. I think the most viable conclusion is that when the field is this weak and this inconsistent then TRULY anyone can beat anyone.

One thing is for sure, I'll never, NEVER, buy into Pittsburgh again...three times ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 1:07 pm)   
 
Okay, Kacey...so tell me: Butler vs. Wisconsin: who ya got?

And I'm completely with you on Pitt. Dixon burned me again. What the hell was I thinking?

Bamilus - I hear you. I counted off that five- second call...got to three and a half. Unconscionable.

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 3:15 pm)   
 
I got burned on Pitt, too. I was even trashing Jamie Dixon but once I got to my excel stats my mind switches gears and I totally forgot that Pitt always under performs post season...

Pete, do you have any thoughts on Marquette and VCU?

I didn't think Marquette had good upset value (even though your upset model picked it....) ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 4:13 pm)   
 
I'd have to go back, but I thought VCU had gruesomely low efficiency numbers. I don't think there's anything that could've foretold that one. Plus, a rookie coach...and I don't think they went last year. All in all, an extreme outlier.

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 4:58 pm)   
 
That's what I figured too. I spent a good 10+ hours pouring through all of your models and the excel sheets (and a good dose of Kenpom.com) and still the thought of VCU even getting past USC was not near the center of my mind.

Oh well, they don't call it March Madness for nothing, huh?

scheb0rk

Salem, VA
Member (Mar 2010)
3 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 5:35 pm)   
 
I learned not to dis the Colonial Athletic Association who, with VCU, GM and ODU are 4- 2 thru 2.1 rounds, compared to BCS Pac 10 (4- 2), SEC (4- 3) and Big 12 (4- 4). Should I mention again that the Big East is 9- 9? CAA are second all time in PASE as a conference, behind another one to never pick against: Horizon (Butler).

kaceynwells

Boerne, TX
Member (Feb 2011)
4 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/21/11 8:18 pm)   
 
Oh crap....I'm sticking with Butler. I know Wisconsin's efficiency numbers are off the charts but this is not a obvious loss for Butler so I'm stickin with Stevens. His teams absolutely play harder than anyone it seems at this level.

The other toughy is Florida vs BYU. Are you kidding me? BYU is living up to their billing when ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/22/11 4:07 pm)   
 
I went BYU on the CBSSports site. I'm four games down and need to make up ground. Also picked Butler and FSU.

maeder

Meadow Vista, CA
Member (Mar 2008)
2 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/23/11 7:17 pm)   
 
Alright, after seeing the end of those round two games I can really see how a coach should be able to make a difference in a team's performance in the tourney. I mean, a coach who has prepared his team well shouldn't be seeing his players fouling when a game is wrapped up, shooting from half court with 2 seconds left, touching a ball on it's ... more »

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