Which of the Big Six conferences has the best tourney coaches?:

In our conference analysis series, we saw that the ACC was the top rated performer of the 64- team era starting back in 1985. And the coaching analysis series showed us that Mike Krzyzewski was the best coach. The question that neither of those series asked, however, was: which conference currently has the best group of tourney coaches at the moment? While it’s important to know that the ACC has been an historical overachiever, the records of coaches like Dean Smith and Bobby Cremins aren’t exactly relevant to a debate about current conference performance.

So we crunched the numbers on all the coaches from each of the Big Six conferences and aggregated them to find out which currently has the best tourney performers. Here’s what we found out:



Right now, while the ACC clearly has the top coaches in terms of accomplishments (Elite Eight trips, Final Four appearances and championships), the Big Ten’s coaches are the best at beating seed expectations. The ACC’s 12 coaches have racked up 24 Elite Eights, 21 Final Fours and seven championships. Heck, Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams alone account for 21, 18 and 6; the rest of the ACC coaches contributed three quarter- final trips, three semi- finals and one championship. (Gary Williams accounts for two, two and one of those).

As solid as those accomplishments are, the ACC’s rate of beating seed expectations falls below the Big Ten. Based on the seeding of their 86 teams, the ACC should’ve won 159.5 games. They actually won 18.5 games more than that, for a respectable PASE of +.215. But the Big Ten’s PASE is significantly higher than that. Their 71 teams should’ve won 95.7 games, but they exceeded that by 23.3 games, for a PASE of +.328. Here are the 11 Big Ten coaches, listed in order of their PASE value (record and accomplishments in parentheses):

1. Tom Izzo (35- 12, 7E8, 6F4, 1CH), +1.013 PASE
2. John Beilein (7- 5, 1E8), +.775 PASE
3. Tubby Smith (29- 15, 4E8, 1F4, 1CH), +.231 PASE
4. Matt Painter (6- 5), +.192 PASE
5. Fran McCaffery (2- 5), +.183 PASE
6. Bruce Weber (10- 7, 1E8), +.179 PASE
7. Thad Matta (14- 8, 2E8, 1F4), +.114 PASE
8. Bo Ryan (12- 9, 1E8), +.098 PASE
9. Ed DeChellis (0- 1), - .038 PASE
10. Bill Carmody (1- 2), - .351 PASE
11. Tom Crean (5- 5, 1E8), - .144 PASE

The Big Ten’s coaches have also overachieved at a more frequent rate than any of the other conferences, beating expectations 55 percent of the time (39 for 71). The group of coaches with the second highest SOAR (seed overachievement rate) comes from the Big 12. While their PASE is only +.033, Big 12 coaches exceed expectations half the time. The ACC is actually fourth in overachievement frequency, behind the SEC as well.

The Big Six conference whose coaches overachieve with the lowest frequency is the Big East. Only 41 of their 104 coaches have beaten seed expectations and their collective PASE is just +.020, the fifth worse of the Power conferences. The Pac 10’s coaches are the only underachievers among the Big Six. They should’ve won 85 games based on seeding, but only won 80, for an underperforming PASE of - .094. The Pac 10 would be considerably worse than that if it weren’t for Sean Miller (+.486 PASE) and Ben Howland (+.462).
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Which of the Big Six conferences has the best tourney coaches?: In our conference analysis series, we saw that the ACC was the top rated performer of the 64- team era starting back in 1985. And the coaching analysis series showed us that Mike Krzyzewski was the best coach. The question that neither of those series asked, however, was: which conference currently has the best group of tourney coaches at the moment? While it’s important to know that the ACC has been an historical overachiever, the records of coaches like Dean Smith and Bobby Cremins aren’t exactly relevant to a debate about current conference performance. So we crunched the numbers on all the coaches from each of the Big Six conferences and aggregated them to find out which currently has the best tourney performers. Here’s what we found out: <IMG SRC=/ blog/ 11_ conf_ coaches.gif> Right now, while the ACC clearly has the top coaches in terms of accomplishments (Elite Eight trips, Final Four appearances and championships), the Big Ten’s coaches are the best at beating seed expectations. The ACC’s 12 coaches have racked up 24 Elite Eights, 21 Final Fours and seven championships. Heck, Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams alone account for 21, 18 and 6; the rest of the ACC coaches contributed three quarter- final trips, three semi- finals and one championship. (Gary Williams accounts for two, two and one of those). As solid as those accomplishments are, the ACC’s rate of beating seed expectations falls below the Big Ten. Based on the seeding of their 86 teams, the ACC should’ve won 159.5 games. They actually won 18.5 games more than that, for a respectable PASE of +.215. But the Big Ten’s PASE is significantly higher than that. Their 71 teams should’ve won 95.7 games, but they exceeded that by 23.3 games, for a PASE of +.328. Here are the 11 Big Ten coaches, listed in order of their PASE value (record and accomplishments in parentheses): 1. Tom Izzo (35- 12, 7E8, 6F4, 1CH), +1.013 PASE 2. John Beilein (7- 5, 1E8), +.775 PASE 3. Tubby Smith (29- 15, 4E8, 1F4, 1CH), +.231 PASE 4. Matt Painter (6- 5), +.192 PASE 5. Fran McCaffery (2- 5), +.183 PASE 6. Bruce Weber (10- 7, 1E8), +.179 PASE 7. Thad Matta (14- 8, 2E8, 1F4), +.114 PASE 8. Bo Ryan (12- 9, 1E8), +.098 PASE 9. Ed DeChellis (0- 1), - .038 PASE 10. Bill Carmody (1- 2), - .351 PASE 11. Tom Crean (5- 5, 1E8), - .144 PASE The Big Ten’s coaches have also overachieved at a more frequent rate than any of the other conferences, beating expectations 55 percent of the time (39 for 71). The group of coaches with the second highest SOAR (seed overachievement rate) comes from the Big 12. While their PASE is only +.033, Big 12 coaches exceed expectations half the time. The ACC is actually fourth in overachievement frequency, behind the SEC as well. The Big Six conference whose coaches overachieve with the lowest frequency is the Big East. Only 41 of their 104 coaches have beaten seed expectations and their collective PASE is just +.020, the fifth worse of the Power conferences. The Pac 10’s coaches are the only underachievers among the Big Six. They should’ve won 85 games based on seeding, but only won 80, for an underperforming PASE of - .094. The Pac 10 would be considerably worse than that if it weren’t for Sean Miller (+.486 PASE) and Ben Howland (+.462).