Villanova fourth Big East team in three weeks to lose champ cred; Vanderbilt climbs back in:

While the pundits persist in their sycophantic oozing over the Big East (see below), the conference’s top teams keep losing their champ credentials, largely because of their low- scoring, grind- it- out style of play. Villanova is the latest squad to drop off the champ list—by a scant .1 point scored per game. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has played its way back to potential champ status by re- entering the AP Top 25.

There are six qualities that 18 of the last 20 champions have possessed:

1) They came from a Power conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Pac 10)
2) They went to the previous year's tourney
3) Their coach had at least five tourney appearances
4) They scored at least 77 points a game
5) Their average margin of victory was 10 points or more
6) They were seeded one through four

This year I’ve included a seventh criterion related to coaching success. Seventeen of the last 20 champs have possessed all the six qualities listed above—and were led by a coach who had been to the Elite Eight in a prior year.

Based on this week’s AP Top 25, here’s who makes the grade according to the old and new criteria:



The ten teams with “Y’s” highlighted in orange under “Old Rule” have the statistical chops to be champs. That includes Ohio State, Pitt, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Kentucky, Washington, Vanderbilt and Louisville. If you apply the “Elite Eight” requirement, the Huskies and Commodores drop off the list. Neither Romar nor Stallings have had a quarterfinal tourney run. (The red numbers on the chart show where the other teams fail to measure up.)

Only five teams have appeared on every champ check for the last ten weeks: OSU, Pitt, Duke, Kansas, and Missouri. OSU and Texas are both at risk of failing to meet champ credentials because their scoring averages are getting close to the 77- point barrier. (Kentucky and Vanderbilt are also just above the firepower minimum.)

The second column on the chart—“PY RK”—shows how the AP’s Top 25 teams rank according to Pythagorean efficiency values. Pythag is a measure of a squad’s combined scoring and defending efficiency per possession. Look at the numbers boxed in red. Based on efficiency stats, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Georgetown, Florida State, Florida and Michigan State don’t belong in the top 25. Seven teams have better numbers than the Pythag imposters above. That includes St. Mary’s (#19 according to efficiency rankings), Arizona (#20), Maryland (#21), Virginia Tech (#22), North Carolina (#23), West Virginia (#24) and UNLV (#25).

One thing I’ll say though: none of these teams are exactly glaring omissions. They would slot into the bottom seven slots in the Top 25. It’s nothing like a few weeks back, when Washington was the fifth most efficient team in the land—and didn’t even make the AP’s Top 25.

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Villanova fourth Big East team in three weeks to lose champ cred; Vanderbilt climbs back in: While the pundits persist in their sycophantic oozing over the Big East (see below), the conference’s top teams keep losing their champ credentials, largely because of their low- scoring, grind- it- out style of play. Villanova is the latest squad to drop off the champ list—by a scant .1 point scored per game. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has played its way back to potential champ status by re- entering the AP Top 25. There are six qualities that 18 of the last 20 champions have possessed: 1) They came from a Power conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Pac 10) 2) They went to the previous year's tourney 3) Their coach had at least five tourney appearances 4) They scored at least 77 points a game 5) Their average margin of victory was 10 points or more 6) They were seeded one through four This year I’ve included a seventh criterion related to coaching success. Seventeen of the last 20 champs have possessed all the six qualities listed above—and were led by a coach who had been to the Elite Eight in a prior year. Based on this week’s AP Top 25, here’s who makes the grade according to the old and new criteria: <IMG SRC=/ blog/ champ_ 0124 11.gif> The ten teams with “Y’s” highlighted in orange under “Old Rule” have the statistical chops to be champs. That includes Ohio State, Pitt, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Kentucky, Washington, Vanderbilt and Louisville. If you apply the “Elite Eight” requirement, the Huskies and Commodores drop off the list. Neither Romar nor Stallings have had a quarterfinal tourney run. (The red numbers on the chart show where the other teams fail to measure up.) Only five teams have appeared on every champ check for the last ten weeks: OSU, Pitt, Duke, Kansas, and Missouri. OSU and Texas are both at risk of failing to meet champ credentials because their scoring averages are getting close to the 77- point barrier. (Kentucky and Vanderbilt are also just above the firepower minimum.) The second column on the chart—“PY RK”—shows how the AP’s Top 25 teams rank according to Pythagorean efficiency values. Pythag is a measure of a squad’s combined scoring and defending efficiency per possession. Look at the numbers boxed in red. Based on efficiency stats, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Georgetown, Florida State, Florida and Michigan State don’t belong in the top 25. Seven teams have better numbers than the Pythag imposters above. That includes St. Mary’s (#19 according to efficiency rankings), Arizona (#20), Maryland (#21), Virginia Tech (#22), North Carolina (#23), West Virginia (#24) and UNLV (#25). One thing I’ll say though: none of these teams are exactly glaring omissions. They would slot into the bottom seven slots in the Top 25. It’s nothing like a few weeks back, when Washington was the fifth most efficient team in the land—and didn’t even make the AP’s Top 25.