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Models = too much Duke?
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/16/10 12:24 am)   
 
Nine of 12 models posted- - five for Duke, two for Kansas, one apiece of Orange and Hoyas:

I've completed nine of the 12 models I committed to cranking out. I could sure use a Kramerica- like intern for these couple of days. There are still three models left:

- Model 8 based on Contender/Pretender rules
- Model ... more »

Bamilus

Michgan
Member (Mar 2010)
92 comments posted


  Posted: 4 years ago   (3/16/10 12:49 am)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (2/1/12 2:41 pm)
 
Hey Pete, great job on the models and I love the stats excel sheet. I did like 5- 6 hours of number crunching on my own and used my instinct and incorporated all of your models into my one bracket.

I am also skeptical about the Duke being champion pick that seems to keep coming up in your models. Duke is good but them winning the championship ... more »

73rdSt

Rancho Santa Fe, CA
Member (Jan 2007)
12 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/16/10 1:34 pm)   
 
Pete:

Don't second guess your models on Duke. They aren't dominating, but their region is a NCAA gift!!! So we take it. All the Duke haters are seething and it is understandable. Meanwhile, Kansas has Ohio State, Georgetown, and Maryland in their region.
Duke should have to pay gift tax. The only thing missing ... more »

ccc002

Hurst, TX
Member (Feb 2010)
3 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/16/10 3:02 pm)   
 
Duke, has the worst FG% of a #1 Seed since the 2006 Villanova team (thanks to pete's spreadsheet) which is the #11 disqualifier for a #1 seed reaching a Final Four. Actually, it's not a "disqualifier" it just means the likelyhood for Duke to make the Final Four is only 10%, but the selection committee did it's best to help Duke beat this trend.


ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/16/10 3:21 pm)   
 
One thing about that FG%...Duke shoots a gob of threes. ("Gob" is a statistical term.) That brings the percentage down. And the fact that the Blue Devils are a strong offensive rebounding teams means that they extend possessions. Still, a disqualifer is a disqualifer. I'm just saying...

jcos

Rockville, MD
Member (Dec 2009)
9 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/16/10 3:40 pm)   
 
cc002 - that Villanova team lost in the Elite 8 to eventual champion Florida(in the first of their back to back championships) - so that's not really a "failure".

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