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6v11, 5v12
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 10:59 am)   
 
Upset factors don’t identify any 6v11 or 5v12 upset victors or victims:

I was surprised this year to find that when I applied the upset rules to the 6v11 and 5v12 match- ups, not a single low seed had what it took to be a Cinderella. Furthermore, none of the high seeds showed statistical earmarks of being victims. A few of the models reflect ... more »

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 2:07 pm)   
 
Pete, I know you wouldn't even think about putting it in your bracket, but North Dakota State comes close to meeting the criteria for a 14- seed upset. They're a high scoring team at 80.8 a game; alas, their scoring is too balanced to meet the criteria. On the other hand, they do have a pretty high scoring margin (which as we know points ... more »

cderrick77584

Spring, TX
Member (Mar 2007)
13 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 2:14 pm)   
 
Noticed that as well. Aren't they less than 4% points from meeting all the criteria? I think their guards account for 51% and some change of the scoring.

Kansas has struggled as of late, and before last year Self had some disappointing tournaments. It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see them lose.

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 2:25 pm)   
 
Yeah, North Dakota State's at least as good as Texas Tech, who waxed the Jayhawks by 19 two weeks ago.

One championship run tends to change perceptions, but both Syracuse and Arizona returned to their underachieving habits after winning the championship.

cderrick77584

Spring, TX
Member (Mar 2007)
13 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 2:34 pm)   
 
Self deserves a lot of credit this year. I think they have played over the heads for much of the season. They almost lost to Texas down the stretch as well. Not sure they beat OU with Griffin, and losing to Baylor really makes me wonder about this team.

Not sure they get past the 2nd round anyway, but don't think I can pick a 14.

Kansas ... more »

JCNittany

Richmond, VA
Member (Feb 2007)
1 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 2:46 pm)   
 
How does this segmentation break down of major vs. mid- major.

For example, if a 5 seed is from a mid- major and the 12 from a major, is the upset more likely?

I would think anytime a major is a 12 seed, they are probably win more often (Arkansas vs. PSU in 1996, A&M over Syracuse, Missouri when they made their run that one ... more »

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 3:13 pm)   
 
That would take a while, but I did run some basic numbers.

11 & 12 seeds
Big Six: 14- 29
Quasi- Major: 11- 40
Mid- Major: 26- 44
Low- Major: 8- 18
Independents: 2- 0

5 & 6 seeds
Big Six: 107- 46
Quasi- Major: 16- 8
Mid- Major: 4- 6
Low- Major: 2- 0
Independents: ... more »

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 3:32 pm)   
 
Okay, quick check... non- Big Six 5/6 seeds are 16- 10 against other non- Big Six teams in the first round, 6- 4 against teams from the Big Six. Full disclosure, that counts teams like Louisville and Arkansas as non- Big Six in the days before they played in the Big East and SEC.

jklps

Rockville, MD
Member (Mar 2007)
12 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 3:41 pm)   
 
To go with stephenson's post:

This year's 11 and 12's:

Bix Six: Wisconsin, Arizona,
Quasi- Major: Dayton, Temple
Mid- Major: VCU, Northern Iowa, Utah State, Western Kentucky

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 3:45 pm)   
 
Right. And all the 5's and 6's save Utah are from the Big Six.

stephenson

Nashville, TN
Member (Mar 2008)
24 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 3:56 pm)   
 
Hmmmm... I got curious, and I'm a little surprised to find out that teams outside the Big Six are a whopping 65- 3 in the first round when they've been seeded 1- 4. The Big Six teams' record of 280- 36 isn't bad by any stretch, but highly- seeded teams from outside the Big Six conferences have been less prone to upsets.

They ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/17/09 8:26 pm)   
 
Love all the hard work guys. "Quasi- Major" is a nice touch. Next year, I'll try to put "Conference Type" into the Bracketmaster to simplify these searches.

windbane

Tampa, FL
Member (Mar 2008)
5 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/18/09 8:21 pm)   
 
Just curious, but under the upset rules for pegging a 5- seed target (5v12), does "losing streak" mean more than 1 loss in a row? FSU and Illinois lost in their league tournaments and don't seem to get 50%+ scoring from their guards, unless Illinois counts their SF as a guard since he's only 6'2".

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  6 years ago   (3/19/09 9:32 am)   
 
More than one loss in a row. If you haven't already downloaded the "2009 Team Stats" Excel sheet, you should. That gives you all the numbers you need.

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