Ten stats champs still remain, but top teams showing weakness:

After Syracuse and Georgetown dropped off the champ list last week, another Big East team bit the dust this week. Notre Dame lost the scoring credentials that are among six qualities which 18 of the last 20 champs have had since 1991. (In fact, Villanova’s 61- 59 loss to UConn this afternoon also dropped their scoring average below the 77- point threshold. But they snuck in this week because I did the analysis before the afternoon game.)

Here are the six qualities a team needs to earn champion candidate credentials:

1) They come from a Power conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Pac 10)
2) They went to the previous year's tourney
3) Their coach has at least five tourney appearances
4) They score at least 77 points a game
5) Their average margin of victory is 10 points or more
6) They wind up seeded one through four.

Based on this week’s AP Top 25, here’s who still makes the grade:



The ten teams with “Y’s” highlighted in orange under “Old Rule” have the statistical chops to be champs. That includes Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pitt, Villanova (maybe…), Texas, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisville and Washington. Fifteen teams in the Top 25 don’t meet the magical six criteria. The red numbers on the chart show where each team fails to measure up.

See the column titled “E8”—and the red zeros beside certain coaches? This is a seventh champ criterion I’ve started tracking. Seventeen of the last 20 champs have possessed all the six qualities listed above—and were led by a coach who had been to the Elite Eight in a prior year. If we re- examine our champ candidates by adding the requirement that their coach have an Elite Eight trip on his resume, Washington loses its credentials.

So, as the last column shows, nine teams qualify as possible champions under the “New Rule.” Of those teams, just five have appeared on every champ check for the last nine weeks: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pitt and Missouri. Only the Buckeyes appear to be in danger of losing their stats champ status. Ohio State’s scoring average is steadily declining as they slog through Big Ten play. My guess is that OSU won’t make the grade come tourney time.

The second column on the chart—“PY RK”—shows how the AP’s Top 25 teams rank according to Pythagorean efficiency values. Pythag is a measure of a squad’s combined scoring and defending efficiency per possession. Look at the numbers in red. Based on efficiency statistics, Missouri, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Cincinnati don’t belong in the top 25. The Gophers are a particularly glaring inclusion. Little- known squads like Wichita State and Duquesne have better Pythag rankings than Minnesota’s soft #47.

Five teams have better numbers than Pythag imposters above. That includes Maryland (#14 according to efficiency rankings), UNLV (#15), Arizona (#19), Vanderbilt (#21) and perennial bubble dweller Virginia Tech (#25).
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Ten stats champs still remain, but top teams showing weakness: After Syracuse and Georgetown dropped off the champ list last week, another Big East team bit the dust this week. Notre Dame lost the scoring credentials that are among six qualities which 18 of the last 20 champs have had since 1991. (In fact, Villanova’s 61- 59 loss to UConn this afternoon also dropped their scoring average below the 77- point threshold. But they snuck in this week because I did the analysis before the afternoon game.) Here are the six qualities a team needs to earn champion candidate credentials: 1) They come from a Power conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Pac 10) 2) They went to the previous year's tourney 3) Their coach has at least five tourney appearances 4) They score at least 77 points a game 5) Their average margin of victory is 10 points or more 6) They wind up seeded one through four. Based on this week’s AP Top 25, here’s who still makes the grade: <IMG SRC=/ blog/ champ_ 011711.gif> The ten teams with “Y’s” highlighted in orange under “Old Rule” have the statistical chops to be champs. That includes Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pitt, Villanova (maybe…), Texas, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisville and Washington. Fifteen teams in the Top 25 don’t meet the magical six criteria. The red numbers on the chart show where each team fails to measure up. See the column titled “E8”—and the red zeros beside certain coaches? This is a seventh champ criterion I’ve started tracking. Seventeen of the last 20 champs have possessed all the six qualities listed above—and were led by a coach who had been to the Elite Eight in a prior year. If we re- examine our champ candidates by adding the requirement that their coach have an Elite Eight trip on his resume, Washington loses its credentials. So, as the last column shows, nine teams qualify as possible champions under the “New Rule.” Of those teams, just five have appeared on every champ check for the last nine weeks: Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pitt and Missouri. Only the Buckeyes appear to be in danger of losing their stats champ status. Ohio State’s scoring average is steadily declining as they slog through Big Ten play. My guess is that OSU won’t make the grade come tourney time. The second column on the chart—“PY RK”—shows how the AP’s Top 25 teams rank according to Pythagorean efficiency values. Pythag is a measure of a squad’s combined scoring and defending efficiency per possession. Look at the numbers in red. Based on efficiency statistics, Missouri, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Cincinnati don’t belong in the top 25. The Gophers are a particularly glaring inclusion. Little- known squads like Wichita State and Duquesne have better Pythag rankings than Minnesota’s soft #47. Five teams have better numbers than Pythag imposters above. That includes Maryland (#14 according to efficiency rankings), UNLV (#15), Arizona (#19), Vanderbilt (#21) and perennial bubble dweller Virginia Tech (#25).