Villanova and LSU top Cinderellas in modern era; Duke and Oklahoma the most victimized:

Since the advent of the 64- team tourney in 1985, there have been 219 games in which a team seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent sprung an upset. That’s an average of 8.4 upsets per dance over the 26 years of the modern era. One hundred and nineteen different teams have worn the Cinderella slipper, while 80 teams have been victimized.

Who are the most frequent victors and victims in these upset match- ups? Take a look at these lists:

<IMG SRC=/ blog/ 11_ victor_ victim.gif>

The first column shows the teams that have sprung the most upsets in the tourney. Not surprisingly, Villanova is at the top of the list. Four of the Wildcats’ upsets came in the first year of the 64- team dance, when they made their extraordinary run to the championship. LSU is also tied for the top spot. The Tigers’ big Cinderella years were 1986, when they sprung four upsets as an 11 seed, and 1987, when they knocked off two favorites as a 10 seed.

The next three biggest Cinderellas—Auburn, Boston College and Temple—also did their damage in the early years of the modern tourney era. The only recent school to make the list of top victors is George Mason, which notched all their upsets in 2006, when they made their amazing run to the Final Four as an 11 seed.

Those are the top victors. Who are the most victimized squads? I was a little surprised to see Duke at the top of this list, but when you consider the difficulties the Blue Devils had between the 2001 and 2010 championships, it makes sense. Five of their eight disappointments occurred in an eight- year span. It started with a loss to fifth- seeded Indiana in 2002 as a top seed. Then, in 2005, Duke lost again as a one seed to a fifth- seeded Big Ten squad. This time, Michigan State did the trick. Two years later, in 2007, the sixth- seeded Blue Devils got surprised by 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth in the opening round. The next year, Duke got upset as a two seed in the second round by seven seed West Virginia. And in 2009, the same thing happened, with the seventh- seeded Texas Longhorns bumping off Duke in the second round.

At least Duke owns an overachieving PASE for the 25 years of its modern tourney history. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma, which also has been victimized eight times by lower seeded Cinderellas. Considering that the Sooners have five fewer overall tourney appearances, their upset/ appearance rate is higher than Duke’s—40 to 32 percent. And if you read the feature piece on A HREF=http:/ / www.bracketscience.com/ articles.asp?i=90>Worst Teams by PASE</ A> you know that Oklahoma’s - .411 PASE is the fifth lowest among schools with at least 10 tourney trips, while Duke’s is the second highest.

The next two most victimized schools—Kansas and Syracuse—got where they are in the rankings because of their failings last year. The Jayhawks’ loss to Northern Iowa and the Orange’s loss to Butler gave them each their seventh slaying at the hands of a giant killer, and separated them from Arizona and UCLA, both of which were on the losing end of six shockers.

The last two columns on the chart above do a balance sheet reckoning between victory and victimization. As you can see, Villanova dropped in the rankings for best margin because the Wildcats were upset twice, while Auburn has never been upset. Unfortunately for Duke fans, the Blue Devils have never sprung an upset in the dance, and so they find themselves alone on top of the worst margin list. In fairness, Duke has only owned a seed lower than four three times—so they haven’t had a bunch of upset opportunities. In fact, their only chance to spring an upset came in 1987, when they lost to top- seeded and ultimate champion Indiana, 88- 82.

The Sooners can breathe a sigh of relief that they escaped the ignominy of owning the worst margin with two upsets of their own. That puts Syracuse as the team with the second worst net victimization number. Like Duke, the Orange haven’t sprung an upset in the 64- team era either.

... more » « less

Villanova and LSU top Cinderellas in modern era; Duke and Oklahoma the most victimized: Since the advent of the 64- team tourney in 1985, there have been 219 games in which a team seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent sprung an upset. That’s an average of 8.4 upsets per dance over the 26 years of the modern era. One hundred and nineteen different teams have worn the Cinderella slipper, while 80 teams have been victimized. Who are the most frequent victors and victims in these upset match- ups? Take a look at these lists: <IMG SRC=/ blog/ 11_ victor_ victim.gif> The first column shows the teams that have sprung the most upsets in the tourney. Not surprisingly, Villanova is at the top of the list. Four of the Wildcats’ upsets came in the first year of the 64- team dance, when they made their extraordinary run to the championship. LSU is also tied for the top spot. The Tigers’ big Cinderella years were 1986, when they sprung four upsets as an 11 seed, and 1987, when they knocked off two favorites as a 10 seed. The next three biggest Cinderellas—Auburn, Boston College and Temple—also did their damage in the early years of the modern tourney era. The only recent school to make the list of top victors is George Mason, which notched all their upsets in 2006, when they made their amazing run to the Final Four as an 11 seed. Those are the top victors. Who are the most victimized squads? I was a little surprised to see Duke at the top of this list, but when you consider the difficulties the Blue Devils had between the 2001 and 2010 championships, it makes sense. Five of their eight disappointments occurred in an eight- year span. It started with a loss to fifth- seeded Indiana in 2002 as a top seed. Then, in 2005, Duke lost again as a one seed to a fifth- seeded Big Ten squad. This time, Michigan State did the trick. Two years later, in 2007, the sixth- seeded Blue Devils got surprised by 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth in the opening round. The next year, Duke got upset as a two seed in the second round by seven seed West Virginia. And in 2009, the same thing happened, with the seventh- seeded Texas Longhorns bumping off Duke in the second round. At least Duke owns an overachieving PASE for the 25 years of its modern tourney history. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma, which also has been victimized eight times by lower seeded Cinderellas. Considering that the Sooners have five fewer overall tourney appearances, their upset/ appearance rate is higher than Duke’s—40 to 32 percent. And if you read the feature piece on A HREF=http:/ / www.bracketscience.com/ articles.asp?i=90>Worst Teams by PASE</ A> you know that Oklahoma’s - .411 PASE is the fifth lowest among schools with at least 10 tourney trips, while Duke’s is the second highest. The next two most victimized schools—Kansas and Syracuse—got where they are in the rankings because of their failings last year. The Jayhawks’ loss to Northern Iowa and the Orange’s loss to Butler gave them each their seventh slaying at the hands of a giant killer, and separated them from Arizona and UCLA, both of which were on the losing end of six shockers. The last two columns on the chart above do a balance sheet reckoning between victory and victimization. As you can see, Villanova dropped in the rankings for best margin because the Wildcats were upset twice, while Auburn has never been upset. Unfortunately for Duke fans, the Blue Devils have never sprung an upset in the dance, and so they find themselves alone on top of the worst margin list. In fairness, Duke has only owned a seed lower than four three times—so they haven’t had a bunch of upset opportunities. In fact, their only chance to spring an upset came in 1987, when they lost to top- seeded and ultimate champion Indiana, 88- 82. The Sooners can breathe a sigh of relief that they escaped the ignominy of owning the worst margin with two upsets of their own. That puts Syracuse as the team with the second worst net victimization number. Like Duke, the Orange haven’t sprung an upset in the 64- team era either.