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You say, "In fairness to Duke, the school has only played in one game where it had a low enough seed to be considered a Cinderella," yet one could also draw the conclusion that perhaps Duke was over rated/ranked more often than most any other team.

You say, "In fairness to Duke, the school has only played in one game where it had a low enough seed to be considered a Cinderella," yet one could also draw the conclusion that perhaps Duke was over rated/ranked more often than most any other team.

Who’s at the top and bottom of the upset balance sheet?:

Last year, I went back through all 24 brackets from the 64- team tourney era and discovered that Louisiana State and Villanova were the two schools that had sprung the most upsets—six—since 1985. Conversely, I found that Duke and Oklahoma were the most victimized by Cinderellas. Each had suffered eight upsets.

(I count an upset as any game that a team wins when it’s seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent. A six seed beating a two seed is an upset; a six beating a three isn’t.)

One year later—and after a quarter century of 64- team brackets, LSU and Nova remain as the top upset victors and Duke and Oklahoma are the top upset victims. But I noticed as I did this year’s research that some teams appear high on both the victor and victim lists. Take LSU. Yes, the Tigers have sprung six surprises, but they’ve also suffered four upsets. So their net upset margin is just two games. Alabama and North Carolina are tied for thirteenth best among upset springers—but both have been victimized five times. So their net upset margin—heck, let’s make an acronym out of it and call it NUM—is negative two.

So what if we reckoned the upset victor/victim balance sheet for all the teams over the last 25 years? Here are the lists of teams with the highest plus and lowest minus margins:

<IMG SRC=/blog/upset_margin.gif>

Villanova is still tied for the top victor margin—but it’s with Auburn now and not LSU, which doesn’t even appear in the top 16. The top victim margin now belongs exclusively to Duke. That’s because the Blue Devils have never sprung an upset themselves, while getting humbled eight times. Oklahoma, which also owns eight upset losses, at least managed to spring a couple surprises. In fairness to Duke, the school has only played in one game where it had a low enough seed to be considered a Cinderella. In 1987, the Blue Devils lost as a five seed to top- seeded Indiana, which went on to win the tourney.

Nonetheless, Duke owns the dubious distinction of having the worst victim margin of any team in the modern era. Oklahoma and Syracuse come in second, with a margin of negative six. Like Duke, Syracuse finds itself in this disappointing position because they haven’t sprung an upset. Unlike Duke, however, the Orange have had their chances, playing in four upset- potential games (1985, 1992, 1995 and 1998), but failing in each. ... more » « less

Who’s at the top and bottom of the upset balance sheet?: Last year, I went back through all 24 brackets from the 64- team tourney era and discovered that Louisiana State and Villanova were the two schools that had sprung the most upsets—six—since 1985. Conversely, I found that Duke and Oklahoma were the most victimized by Cinderellas. Each had suffered eight upsets. (I count an upset as any game that a team wins when it’s seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent. A six seed beating a two seed is an upset; a six beating a three isn’t.) One year later—and after a quarter century of 64- team brackets, LSU and Nova remain as the top upset victors and Duke and Oklahoma are the top upset victims. But I noticed as I did this year’s research that some teams appear high on both the victor and victim lists. Take LSU. Yes, the Tigers have sprung six surprises, but they’ve also suffered four upsets. So their net upset margin is just two games. Alabama and North Carolina are tied for thirteenth best among upset springers—but both have been victimized five times. So their net upset margin—heck, let’s make an acronym out of it and call it NUM—is negative two. So what if we reckoned the upset victor/victim balance sheet for all the teams over the last 25 years? Here are the lists of teams with the highest plus and lowest minus margins: <IMG SRC=/blog/upset_margin.gif> Villanova is still tied for the top victor margin—but it’s with Auburn now and not LSU, which doesn’t even appear in the top 16. The top victim margin now belongs exclusively to Duke. That’s because the Blue Devils have never sprung an upset themselves, while getting humbled eight times. Oklahoma, which also owns eight upset losses, at least managed to spring a couple surprises. In fairness to Duke, the school has only played in one game where it had a low enough seed to be considered a Cinderella. In 1987, the Blue Devils lost as a five seed to top- seeded Indiana, which went on to win the tourney. Nonetheless, Duke owns the dubious distinction of having the worst victim margin of any team in the modern era. Oklahoma and Syracuse come in second, with a margin of negative six. Like Duke, Syracuse finds itself in this disappointing position because they haven’t sprung an upset. Unlike Duke, however, the Orange have had their chances, playing in four upset- potential games (1985, 1992, 1995 and 1998), but failing in each.