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Day 1 model results
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/19/10 9:53 pm)   
 
It's doing the best of all- - so far. 98th percentile...but it's way early.

Joamiq

New York, NY
Member (Mar 2009)
8 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/19/10 9:29 pm)   
 
I'm really curious to see how pulse check does when all is said and done. I feel like, a few years from now, a refined pulse check model might be the best there is.

burtdingman

NJ
Member (Mar 2010)
4 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/19/10 7:36 pm)   
 
Pythag has been my best bet so far. Still very early yet.

Keeper and Pete's gut model have been hurting me.

Pete,

In a smaller pool (15- 25 people), what would you say a safe estimations of wins is needed to finish close to at the top? 43- 45? I know you say 48 is the average it takes, but I figured that ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  4 years ago   (3/19/10 12:21 pm)   
 
Upset/tossup, pulse check and Pythag lead models:

After the first day of craziness, here's how the 12 models rank:

1. Upset/tossup - 120, 96.9 percentile
1. Pulse check - 120, 96.9 percentile
1. Pythag - 120, 96.9 percentile
4. Upset special - 110, 87.4 percentile
4. Final Four/champ - 110, ... more »

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