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Is slow play bad luck?
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ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (1/20/12 3:22 pm)   
Edited:  18 months ago   (10/14/12 2:16 pm)
 
This is true, Skillet. But I wouldn't call that "luck," as Ken has coined it. To me, it's the occupational hazard of adopting a slow- down approach. I've just noticed that a lot of these slow- paced, high Pythag teams don't necessarily meet expectations in the dance. Give me a fast paced, defensively efficient team any day.

skillet300

Denver, PA
Member (Mar 2007)
5 comments posted


  2 years ago   (1/20/12 11:21 am)   
 
Another factor to consider is that the fewer possessions a team has the less possessions the "underdog" team has to "win" in order to win the game. This magnifies the value of every turnover/ missed shot, etc. Basically it is an issue of "sample size". You're much more likely to flip a coin and get heads every time if you flip it 3 times versus if you flip it 5 times.

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  Posted: 2 years ago   (1/10/12 10:29 pm)   
Edited:  2 years ago   (4/13/12 12:18 pm)
 
Efficiency stats say slower- paced teams have worse luck—but is it true?:


If you haven’t dug into Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics (at www.kenpom.com), you may not know that he has a calculation for luck. Ken defines luck as <i>“the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual ... more »

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