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jdurham

Elmwood, IL
Member (Mar 2011)
14 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/14/11 2:46 pm)   
Edited:  3 days ago   (8/26/14 4:56 pm)
 
Valuable info. Lucky me I found your web site by chance, and I am surprised why this accident didn't came about earlier! I bookmarked it.
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gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/11/11 7:03 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (7/17/11 9:16 pm)
 
5 seeds

I used the seed criteria for all 5 seeds noted in the seed matchup info.

To pick a five seed victim, look at backcourt scoring and a lack of momentum. Fifth- seeded squads that get between 25 and 50% of their points from guards and are coming into the tourney with fewer than three straight wins are just 21- 20 (.512); ... more »

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/10/11 10:22 pm)   
 
I looked at the junior and senior starters, seemed to not be able to pick out the weak or strong teams on a consistent basis. I have been looking for more items that eliminate a large group to start...either the poor performers of the deep run teams. From this, then trying to see if adding other criteria can pick off 1- 2 more of the odd balls that are in after the first cuts. Looking at the PASE numbers to change.

Gary

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/10/11 10:19 pm)   
 
4 seeds

There have been 26 #4 seeds that did not make the prior year tourney. Of these, 9 made the Sweet 16 and 3 made it to the Elite 8 and Final Four. Together the PASE is - 0.154

Filtering the points allowed to those teams allowing 65.5 ppg or less leaves only 11 teams that did not make the prior year tourney. Of these, all 11 ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/10/11 9:05 pm)   
 
It certainly could, Greg. But I did a quick analysis of 1- 5 seed "rookie" teams from 2005 to 2010...and they're actually - .558 PASE underachievers. It still makes me think there's something to the notion that teams that didn't go to the last dance lack the seasoning they need to overperform. Don't know...

Bregstone

Chicago, IL
Member (Feb 2007)
1 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/10/11 8:10 pm)   
 
couldn't the relatively recent trend of players going straight to the pros or after only one year affect this trend? In the past, when players stayed, it meant much more to have an experienced team of good players. Now, the best players leave early so each year is fairly independent.

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/10/11 3:56 pm)   
 
Thanks Gary. It is clear we think alike. Some people don't know what to do with the Bracketmaster. Of course, if we were going to be advanced, it would be great to include the capability to do exclusions in the querying...but that's for another year.

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/10/11 12:29 pm)   
Edited:  3 years ago   (3/10/11 12:36 pm)
 
2 seeds

There have been 15 #2 seeds that did not make the prior year tourney. Of these, 9 make the sweet 16 and 8 make the Elite 8 with only 1986 Louisville making the Final Four and eventually winning the Championship. Overall PASE of - 0.166

Filtering the ppg scoring range from 76.5 to 90.0 leaves 10 teams, with 8 making the Sweet ... more »

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/9/11 10:31 pm)   
 
For 3 seeds, it gets a bit cluttered. There have been 29 teams seeded 3rd that did not make the tourney the year prior. Only 8 of 29 teams have reached the Elite 8, with 6 of those losing in the first round.
HOwever, since the SOS info starting in 1994, there have been 20 teams that did not make the prior year tourney. 6 of those have reached ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/9/11 2:01 pm)   
 
Nice...yes, SOS didn't come into being until 1994.

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/9/11 10:24 am)   
 
There have been 8 #1 seeds that did not make the tourney the year prior. Only 1…1997 Minnesota reached the Final Four
They scored LESS than 79 ppg. (78.3 actual) The remaining #1 seeds were all over 79 ppg
85 Michigan… 79
90 Michigan St… 84
90 UConn… 79
92 Ohio St… 81
99 Auburn… 82
06 Memphis… 80
10 Kentuchy… 79

Scoring ... more »

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/9/11 8:10 am)   
 
I did this a while back. Having an All- American like Carmelo was critical. Maybe Boeheim's tourney track record. Though both of these conditions would've applied to Kentucky last year too (with Wall and Calipari). Syracuse is definitely an outlier in this respect. Let me know if you find anything. If I get a chance I'll go into my Filemaker DB and do a more advanced analysis...but it's busy times now.

gjd4

Madison, WI
Member (Mar 2010)
45 comments posted


  3 years ago   (3/9/11 8:03 am)   
 
Pete,

Wondering if you have any stats that point to those teams that did not go to the prior NCAA tourney that did well vs those that did not. ARe there any statistical items that seperate 2003 Syracuse from 2010 Kentucky. I will see if I can use the BRACKETMASTER for some info.

Thanks!!

Gary

ptiernan
Pete Tiernan
Ann Arbor, MI
Editor (Nov 2006)
567 comments posted


  Posted: 3 years ago   (3/8/11 9:12 pm)   
Edited:  17 months ago   (4/12/13 5:50 pm)
 
Think long and hard when advancing high seeds that didnÂ’t go to last yearÂ’s dance:


In my recent newsletter, I threw out a quick factoid on the plight of high- seeded teams that didnÂ’t go to the previous tourney. Last year, I mightÂ’ve called this the “Kentucky factor.” This year, I would be real careful before I advanced teams like ... more »

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