*ABOUT THE RATINGS **– The
“Top 3” rankings on the home page are calculated using PASE (“Performance Against Seed Expectations”) analysis. As you’ll read in the
following Glossary of Bracket Science Terms, PASE is calculated by tallying the
positive or negative differences between actual and expected wins at each seed
position. The total of these differences is then divided by the number of
appearances to arrive at an average number of games the coach, conference, team
or attribute either over-performs or under-performs per tournament. *

For instance, the average No. 1 seed wins 3.32 games per tourney, while the
average No. 2 seed nets 2.41 wins per dances. If a given coach appeared in the
tournament once as a top seed and again as a No. 2 seed, his expected win total
would be 5.75 games. If he actually won seven games, he would’ve “overperformed” by 1.25 games for his two appearances—for a
healthy PASE value of +0.625 (1.25/2 appearances).

* *

*As a
handy reference, the graph below shows the average number of wins that a team
with each seed wins per tourney.*

* *

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__BRACKET SCIENCE
TERMS__

**ARF
(Ability to Reach the Final Four)** – A calculation that measures
the ability of a team to reach the Final Four based on the expected success
rate of average teams with a similar seed position. ARF is calculated by taking
the positive and negative differences between a given
team’s actual and expected Final Four appearances at each seed position. The
total of these differences is then subtracted from and divided by a team’s
number of appearance. For instance, the average No. 1 seed reaches the Final
Four .409 times. The average No. 2 seed makes the semis .216 times. If a given
school had appeared as a one seed four times and a two seed four times, they
should’ve reached the Final Four 2.5 times ([.409x4] + [.216x4]). If that team
actually reached the semis four times, then their ARF would be 27.3% (1.5 extra
Final Four trips divided by the 8 minus 2.5 teams that weren’t expected to make
the tourney). In other words, the given team sent 27.3% squads to the semis
than they were expected to.

**Attribute** – Any
measurable characteristic that a team possesses, from the experience of its
coach and seed position to its conference affiliation, points scored, points
allowed, and more. The 18 boxes in the Bracketmaster™
are just a few examples of the attributes analyzed in Bracket Science articles.
“Attribute” is often used interchangeably with “factor.”

**Bracketmaster**™ – The
searchable, on-line NCAA tourney research tool exclusively available on www.bracketscience.com.
The Bracketmaster allows you to find tourney records
based on any combination of 18 attributes. At its simplest, you can find out
the tourney record of your favorite team. An example of a more complicated use
would be researching the record of your favorite team when they’re seeded No. 1
through No. 4, missed last year’s tourney, hold opponents below 65 points a
game—and get at least 50% of their points from guards.

** **

**Contender
Seed** – Teams seeded third through sixth in the tournament.

**Factor** – Any
measurable characteristic that a team possesses, from the experience of its
coach and seed position to its conference affiliation, points scored, points
allowed, and more. The 18 boxes in the Bracketmaster™
are just a few examples of the factors analyzed in Bracket Science articles.
“Factor” is often used interchangeably with “attribute.”

**Favorite
Seed** – Teams seeded first or second in the tournament.

**Longshot**** Seed** – Teams seeded eleventh through
fourteenth in the tournament.

**PASE
(Performance Against Seed Expectations)** – The
average number of wins a team attains above or below the number its seed
position would dictate that it achieves. PASE is calculated by tallying
the positive or negative differences between actual and expected wins at each
seed position. The total of these differences is then divided by the number of
appearances to arrive at an average number of games the team either
over-performs or under-performs per tournament. For instance, the
average No. 1 seed wins 3.32 games per tourney, while the average No. 2 seed
nets 2.41 wins per dances. If a given coach appeared in the tournament once as
a top seed and again as a No. 2 seed, his expected win total would be 5.75
games. If he actually won seven games, he would’ve “overperformed”
by 1.25 games for his two appearances—for a healthy PASE value of +0.625
(1.25/2 appearances).

**Pushover
Seed** – Teams seeded fifteenth or sixteenth in the tournament.

**Toss-up
Game** – Any game in which the seed difference between the two
teams is three or fewer.

**Toss-up
Seed** – Teams seeded seventh through tenth in the tournament.

**UPV (Upset
Predictor Value)** – A calculation that measures the combined
accuracy and frequency of a given factor, or “rule,” in predicting upsets. UPV
measures both the degree to which a given rule increases the odds of picking an
upset (its accuracy) and how many upsets it describes (its frequency). Here’s
an example: Longshots have won 17.3% of the 480 games
in which an upset could happen in round one. These giant killers are rarely 15
or 16 seeds. By eliminating these teams from consideration, you improve your
chances of picking an upset by 42%—a 24.6% winning rate (79-241) versus 17.3%.
Just as importantly, 79 of 83 first-round Cinderellas
satisfy this rule. By multiplying the increase (42%) above the typical upset
rate by the percentage of upsets described (95%) we arrive at the “Upset
Predictor Value,” or UPV, for the “15-16 seed exclusion” rule: an even 40.0.
When you evaluate rules by their UPV, you’re better able to compare their
relative worth in predicting upsets.

**Upset
Game** – Any game in which the seed difference between the
favored team and the underdog is four or more.