2014 Contender|Pretender

Separating Contenders from Pretenders at Every Seed Position

When it comes time to fill out your bracket, it's important to know how many games each seed wins on average per tourney. If you know, for instance, that top seeds win 3.35 games per dance, you can feel pretty comfortable advancing them to at least the Elite Eight. On the other hand, knowing that seven seeds average less than one win per dance should make you think twice about advancing them to the Sweet 16.

The chart below serves as a handy guide to the average number of wins for a single team by seed. Take top seeds; amazingly, 47 of 116 (41%) of one seeds make the Final Four; that?s nearly as many two, three and four seeds that advance to the semifinals (52).

The real trick to succeeding in your tourney pool is being able to separate the teams at each seed position that will exceed the average win totals from those that will fall short of them. The two questions we?ll answer in this article are:

1. How does the makeup of an overachiever differ from an underachiever at each seed position?
2. What attributes separate contenders and pretenders for every seed?

We?ll examine how PASE overperformers differ from underperformers in 17 statistical categories. Then we?ll identify the conditions that improve your odds of picking a contender at each seed position.

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