A model for picking your 2012 Final Four and champion
Bracket picking time is just a few days away, and at this moment, everyone’s bracket is perfect. But the odds are that fewer than 10 percent of tourney pool players will still be able to say that after just the infamous “First Four” games.
For those elite 10-percenters, the theoretical odds of filling out the rest of the bracket perfectly are about nine quintillion to one—more specifically, one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, or two to the 63rd power. Of course, these are just the theoretical odds of picking a perfect bracket. We all know that 16 seeds are virtually assured of losing out of the gate, 15 seeds are 95 percent likely to lose, and 13 and 14 seeds are longshots to win as well. Still, if you wanted to be absolutely sure you achieved bracket perfection—remember: two 15 seeds sprung upsets last year—you would have to fill out all those nine quintillion brackets.